Gordon Brown ruled out an early General Election today, ending weeks of speculation. But this game of political chicken, designed to unsettled the Conservative party, has backfired on the Prime Minister, with this decision now seeming like a climbdown.
A November election was never a likely prospect, and only the ephemeral highs of mid-conference polls ever really suggested otherwise. But although the PM refused to comment initially to keep the Tories on their toes, the continued whispering and hyping of the possibility led to it gaining a life of its own. For a few days, perhaps tempted by a strong lead in the polls, Gordon Brown appeared to be genuinely considering an early election.
But by allowing an early election to seem like a genuine possibility for brief time, Gordon Brown backed himself into a no-win situation. Go ahead with the election, and take the riskiest gamble of his political life, with at the very least the danger of a much reduced Labour majority; abandon the idea, and admit the danger now posed by the Conservatives. And for a man desperate to distance himself from the spin of the Blair years, Brown’s tactic of sowing uncertainty smacks of cheap opportunism.
Far from damaging the Tories, the prospect of an impending election instead roused them to raise their political game, laying out more of their policies in their conference, and inspiring David Cameron to an impressive piece of oratory, delivering a 76 minute speech without notes, with some good soundbites for the headlines. I’m not particularly a fan of the Conservative Party, and it’s dubious whether they can turn a moment of seeming promise into long-term credibility, but they have come out of this pretty well.
Anyway, perhaps the last word on the subject on snap elections should go to Bremner, Bird and Fortune: “That’s when the parties lay out all their policies, look at them, and say ‘Snap!'”